St. Augustine and the storms: a history of repetition.
The oldest city’s storm story is different from the rest of Northeast Florida’s. The region’s only recorded hurricane landfall — Dora, 1964 — came ashore essentially here. And in the modern era the pattern isn’t landfalls at all: the same low, historic blocks have taken water five times in seven seasons, from storms that never touched this coast. Here is the verified record, and what it means if you’re buying here.
By Krista Fracke — Broker Associate, Christie's International Real Estate First Coast · 20+ years in Northeast Florida · 500+ closings · client reviews
Why the water repeats here
Three facts stack: the city is old and low — its historic core was laid out centuries before flood maps; the Matanzas River funnels surge straight past the bayfront and into the lowest blocks; and Davis Shores, the mid-century neighborhood across the Bridge of Lions, sits on filled marsh at some of the lowest elevations in the city. When the Atlantic piles water into the Matanzas — which an offshore hurricane can do from thirty miles out — the same streets take it, storm after storm.
That is the crucial difference from the rest of the region: Jacksonville’s risk concentrates on the river, Ponte Vedra’s on the dune line — St. Augustine’s is tidal surge into a historic, low city, and it recurs without landfalls. The regional strike record (one landfall since 1851, and why) lives on the Northeast Florida hurricane-history page; this page is about what repetition means for the oldest city.
The record, event by event
1964 — Hurricane Dora
The only recorded hurricane landfall on this coast since 1851 came ashore essentially here — a strong Category 2 (~110 mph), tides around ten feet above normal on the coast, over 1,000 St. Johns County homes damaged and more than $30M in county damage (county EM figures, 1964 dollars).
2016 — Hurricane Matthew
The defining modern flood: a Category 3 passing offshore drove a surge of roughly seven feet into Davis Shores, put downtown streets underwater, and flooded the historic districts. The NHC report logs 5–7 ft of coastal inundation along this stretch, peaking near Matanzas Inlet.
2017 — Hurricane Irma
Eleven months later, from a track a hundred miles INLAND, the same neighborhoods took water again — Davis Shores and the downtown bayfront flooded a second time in under a year, and St. Johns County logged 65-mph winds, 8–10 inches of rain, and an EF-1 tornado into a Crescent Beach condo complex (county EM / NHC).
2019 — Hurricane Dorian
A slow offshore crawl 80+ miles out: another surge flood into Davis Shores, the Bridge of Lions temporarily closed, water on low St. Augustine Beach streets — no landfall required, again.
2022 — Hurricane Ian
Crossing the state as a weakening storm, Ian still flooded the downtown bayfront and Davis Shores, Butler Beach, Treasure Beach, and North Beach — $37.8M in county damage across 380 structures (St. Johns County EM).
2022 — Tropical Storm Nicole
Six weeks after Ian, Nicole flooded Davis Shores, Summer Haven, Butler Beach, Vilano, and Porpoise Point, and collapsed a Vilano road — $34.1M county damage across 319 structures (county EM). Only a tropical storm.
2024 — Hurricane Milton
Exiting the coast far to the south, Milton dumped the region’s heaviest verified rain right here — 10.92 inches at St. Augustine South, a 65-knot gust at the St. Augustine Beach pier, and a record crest on Deep Creek that beat Irma’s (NWS Jacksonville verified).
Sources: National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone reports (Matthew, Irma), NWS Jacksonville post-storm summaries (Milton), St. Johns County Emergency Management historic-hazards records.
What this means for buying here
It does NOT mean “don’t buy St. Augustine.” It means the city splits into flood-aware tiers that the market already prices, and a buyer should see the tiers as clearly as the sellers do. The corridor west of US-1 — where most of the actual market lives — sits largely in minimal-hazard mapping. The beach side is a street-by-street patchwork. And in the low historic blocks and Davis Shores, the operative questions are elevation, flood adaptation (raised systems, flood vents, post-flood renovations), the address’s own history, and a real flood-insurance quote — knowable facts, all of them, before you offer.
Every listing on this site carries its FEMA flood zone and evacuation zone, and my diligence on any low-lying St. Augustine home includes its specific flood history — because in this city, that history is the single most price-relevant fact the seller is not required to volunteer.
The part nobody tells you
Florida law does not require a seller to disclose that a home has flooded — and in St. Augustine that law meets a market where identical-looking cottages a block apart can have completely different water histories. Matthew-and-Irma-flooded homes have been renovated and resold, some beautifully flood-adapted, some merely repainted. The difference is discoverable — permits, elevation certificates, insurance history, neighbors — and finding it is precisely the work I do before a buyer of mine offers in the low blocks.
St. Augustine homes in minimal-hazard Zone X — on the market now
This is the work I do every week. Buying in St. Augustine — downtown, the island, or the corridor? Tell me the addresses and I’ll pull each one’s zone, elevation story, and actual flood history before you get attached. In this city, that homework IS the negotiation.
Work with Krista (904) 333-8595 Text
Broker Associate · Christie's International Real Estate First Coast · 20+ years · 500+ closings
Common questions
When was the last hurricane to hit St. Augustine?
The last actual landfall was Hurricane Dora in 1964 — which is also the only hurricane landfall recorded on this coast since 1851. But landfall is the wrong measure for St. Augustine: Matthew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019), Ian (2022), and Nicole (2022) all flooded parts of the city without any of them making landfall here. The pattern that matters is repetition of water, not rarity of landfall.
Does St. Augustine flood every hurricane season?
No — most seasons pass with erosion and rip currents at worst. But the record since 2016 is honest cause for diligence: the same low neighborhoods (Davis Shores, the bayfront, Lincolnville’s lower blocks) took water five times in seven seasons. Elevation is street-by-street here, which is why a St. Augustine purchase should start with the specific address’s flood zone and history rather than a citywide impression.
Is Davis Shores a bad place to buy?
It is a place to buy with full information. Davis Shores is one of the city’s most loved neighborhoods — walkable to downtown over the Bridge of Lions, genuine mid-century character — and it is also the city’s flood-repeat epicenter, with surge water in Matthew, Irma, Dorian, Ian, and Nicole. Elevated and flood-adapted homes there are a different purchase than grade-level ones. I treat the two as different products, price them accordingly, and make sure my buyers do too.
What is St. Augustine doing about the flooding?
The city is the focus of active resiliency work, including a federal Army Corps coastal-storm study, and flood adaptation is now part of its planning conversation. For a buyer the practical takeaway is nearer-term: the address’s FEMA zone, its elevation, its flood history, and its insurance picture are knowable today — and they are exactly what I pull before any offer in the low parts of the city.
70 years of storms, region-wide →
The full Northeast Florida record — and why storms usually miss.
Living in St. Augustine →
Three towns wearing one name — the honest guide.
The historic district guide →
Preservation rules, old stock, and what they mean for a purchase.
St. Augustine Beach →
The island market, live from the MLS.
Want the flood history on a specific St. Augustine home?
Tell me the address — I’ll pull its zone, its elevation story, and what the storms on this page actually did on that street.