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Economic Update
U.S. Economy
Americans’ anxiety about the economy and their jobs resurfaced in July, sending a widely followed measure of consumer confidence downward and ending three consecutive months of increases. The Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 103.2 from a revised 106.2 in June, lower than the 106.2 analysts expected. Lynn Franco, director of the private research group’s Consumer Research Center, said the dip was “no cause for concern.” Franco noted, “The overall state of the economy remains healthy and consumers’ outlook suggests no storm clouds on the short-term horizon. Even the steady upward tick of fuel prices at the pump has done relatively little to dampen consumers’ spirits. Yet, while there is little to suggest a downturn in activity, there is also little to suggest a pickup.” Consumers’ sentiment contrasted with an upbeat assessment of the economy last week from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said he expected the economy to keep growing even as a flurry of job cuts from major corporations were announced. Economists closely track consumer confidence because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all U.S. economic activity. One component of the Conference Board report, which looks at consumers’ views of the current economic situation, fell to 118.5 from 120.8. Another component, the Expectations Index, which measures consumers’ outlook over the next six months, declined to 93.0 percent from 96.4 in June.

Real Estate Watch
Sales of previously owned U.S. houses hit a record pace in June, climbing 2.7 percent as home prices soared 14.7 percent from a year ago, the biggest jump in nearly 25 years. Sales of existing homes surged to a seasonally adjusted 7.33 million unit annual rate last month from May’s upwardly revised 7.14 million unit clip, the National Association of Realtors said. The total includes both single-family homes and condominiums. Industry analysts had expected overall sales to increase to a 7.15 million unit annual pace. Total existing home sales, single-family sales and condo sales, as well as the national median home price, all hit record levels, the Realtors’ data showed. Existing home sales also hit an all-time record pace for the second quarter of the year. The national median home price rose to $219,000, up from $191,000 a year ago and the strongest increase since November 1980, when annual appreciation was 15.6 percent, the group said. Single-family home sales climbed 2.4 percent to a record 6.37 million unit annual rate from May’s 6.22 million unit rate. Condo sales hit a fourth consecutive record, up 4.5 percent to a 960,000 unit rate from a 919,000 unit pace in May. While many economists had forecast some slowing in home sales and price appreciation this year, many have bumped their estimates higher and see 2005 as a record year.

Sources: Associated Press, Reuters

Home Banc Rates

30 Yr Fixed Conforming – 5.875%
15 Yr Fixed Conforming – 5.50%
30 Yr Fixed FHA/VA – 6.25%
5/1 Conforming ARM– 6.00%
Jumbo – CM Series
30 Yr Fixed – 6.375%
5 Yr LIBOR ARM –
5.75%
30 Yr Fixed My Community Solutions – 6.25%

Contact:
Donald Ster
904.470.2062
dster@homebanc.com

ORLANDO, Fla., July 25, 2005 — A continuing tight supply of homes available for sale, low mortgage rates and high demand impacted Florida’s housing market in June, helping to push the statewide median price of existing single-family homes up 31 percent to $248,700; a year ago, it was $189,200, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). In June 2000, Florida’s median sales price was $119,600, according to FAR records, resulting in an increase of nearly 108 percent over the five-year period.

Statewide, resales activity slowed slightly from the blistering pace of recent months, with a total of 25,455 homes sold compared to 26,112 homes a year ago, for a 3 percent drop.

“Some briskness left the pace of sales of existing single-family homes across Florida during June,” says David Scott, executive director of the Dr. Phillips Institute for the Study of American Business Activity and professor of finance at the University of Central Florida (UCF). “Actually, this is a step forward towards economic reality as double-digit gains are impossible to sustain in the real estate market just as they are impossible to sustain in the domestic economy. This single (monthly) outcome is not an alarm bell for a major contraction as the June unit sales are still a healthy number. The June results represented the first month over month decline in 2005.”

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 5.58 percent last month, compared to a rate of 6.29 percent in June 2004. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes was $204,600 in May, up 12.2 percent from a year ago. In California, the statewide median resales price was $522,590 in May; in Maryland, it was $287,439; in New York, it was $245,000; and in North Carolina, the average resales price was $200,889.

The trend of rising real estate values in Florida’s existing-homes market suggests no imminent slowing, according to Scott. “Eventually, rising interest rates will curtail this situation, but long-term rates are still advancing at a slow pace,” he explains. “Substantiating the case for slowing rising long-term rates, including mortgage rates, is the fact that recent inflation rate data contained no negative surprises. As an example, the consumer price index for June stands 2.5 percent higher than a year ago. No thud has yet been heard related to the torrid pace of rising home prices.”

Among Florida’s larger markets, the Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) reported a total of 1,317 homes sold last month compared to 1,293 homes sold a year ago for a 2 percent increase. The area’s median sales price rose 27 percent to $363,100; a year ago, it was $285,900.

“The story in Miami’s housing market is supply and demand: There’s no supply and demand is greater than ever,” says Jay Chernoff, chairman of the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches and district sales manager with Keyes Company Realtors in Aventura. “Homes sell quickly and usually receive multiple offers. Globally, Miami continues to grow in popular appeal — South Beach is a strong draw, Miami Beach is a tremendous tourist hub and the area offers a strong international business climate.”

Other larger markets reporting higher home sales in June compared to a year ago include: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, where 5,230 homes sold for a 2 percent increase; and Jacksonville, where 1,798 homes changed hands, also for a 2 percent gain. The median sales price in both markets rose by 23 percent last month: reaching $211,100 in Jacksonville and $208,700 in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.

In the state’s smaller MSAs, Tallahassee had a 14 percent gain in the number of home sales last month, with a total of 552 homes changing hands compared to 486 homes sold a year ago. The market’s median sales price rose 11 percent to $169,800; a year ago, it was $152,400.

“The biggest issue driving our housing market is inventory; specifically, the lack of homes for sale. Developers also can’t build new construction fast enough to meet demand,” says Mike Ferrie, president of the Tallahassee Board of Realtors and sales associate with Blue Chip Realty Inc. in Tallahassee. “Mortgage rates are still low and that is helping to keep buyer demand high as well. Plus, since Tallahassee is the state’s capital, there are a lot of job opportunities here.”

Other smaller MSAs reporting gains in home sales last month include: Punta Gorda, where 490 homes sold for a 22 percent increase; and Gainesville, where 450 homes changed hands for a 15 percent gain. The median sales price in those markets also rose: in Punta Gorda, 16 percent to $216,500; and in Gainesville, 10 percent to $192,000.

A chart showing statistics for Florida and its 20 MSAs is available by clicking here. The chart compares the volume of existing, single-family home sales and median sales prices in June 2005 to June 2004, based on Realtor transactions.

The Florida Association of Realtors, the voice for real estate in Florida, provides programs, services, continuing education, research and legislative representation to its more than 130,000 members in 70 boards/associations.

© 2005 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Here are the recent home sales in the Marsh Landing. The square footage is as reported by the MLS. Contact me for more information on these sales.

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 5/23/2005 A 5 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 3900 square feet. $899,000 The listing brokerage is Assist2sell and MLS#236074
Price: $889,000

Harbour Island- Sold Date: 5/26/2005 A 4 bedroom and 3 bath home, with 3209 square feet. $899,000 The listing brokerage is Watson Realty Corp and MLS#229308
Price: $850,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 5/27/2005 A 4 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 4806 square feet. $1,829,500 The listing brokerage is Sawgrass Real Estate Sales Inc and MLS#232447
Price: $1,765,000

Marsh Landing Cc- Sold Date: 5/31/2005 A 6 bedroom and 6 bath home, with 6809 square feet. $2,250,000 The listing brokerage is Coldwell Banker Walter Williams Realty and MLS#232486
Price: $2,150,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 5/31/2005 A 5 bedroom and 4 bath home, with 3700 square feet. $839,000 The listing brokerage is Marsh Landing Realty, Inc. and MLS#240042
Price: $814,750

Harbour Island- Sold Date: 6/7/2005 A 4 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 4820 square feet. $2,299,000 The listing brokerage is Prudential Network Realty and MLS#227365
Price: $2,290,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 6/15/2005 A 4 bedroom and 4 bath home, with 3180 square feet. $775,000 The listing brokerage is Re/Max Specialists and MLS#241693
Price: $740,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 6/16/2005 A 5 bedroom and 4 bath home, with 3223 square feet. $815,000 The listing brokerage is Re/Max Coastal Real Estate and MLS#236737
Price: $812,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 6/21/2005 A 4 bedroom and 4 bath home, with 3603 square feet. $799,000 The listing brokerage is Ponte Vedra Club Realty and MLS#219004
Price: $725,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 6/24/2005 A 3 bedroom and 3 bath home, with 3000 square feet. $720,000 The listing brokerage is Keller Williams and MLS#238523
Price: $705,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 6/28/2005 A 5 bedroom and 6 bath home, with 7307 square feet. $2,450,000 The listing brokerage is Re/Max Coastal Real Estate and MLS#194838
Price: $2,350,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 6/29/2005 A 4 bedroom and 4 bath home, with 3623 square feet. $999,000 The listing brokerage is Marsh Landing Realty, Inc. and MLS#229722
Price: $970,000

Marsh Landing Cc- Sold Date: 6/30/2005 A 4 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 3616 square feet. $865,000 The listing brokerage is Ponte Vedra Club Realty and MLS#234755
Price: $835,000

Harbour Island- Sold Date: 6/30/2005 A 4 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 6300 square feet. $2,799,900 The listing brokerage is Re/Max Coastal Real Estate and MLS#238208
Price: $2,700,000

Harbour Island- Sold Date: 6/30/2005 A 3 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 4038 square feet. $2,295,000 The listing brokerage is Marsh Landing Realty, Inc. and MLS#239192
Price: $2,250,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 7/1/2005 A 5 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 5301 square feet. $1,199,000 The listing brokerage is Re/Max Coastal Real Estate and MLS#239865
Price: $1,145,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 7/5/2005 A 4 bedroom and 4 bath home, with 3489 square feet. $825,000 The listing brokerage is Prudential Network Realty and MLS#241351
Price: $810,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 7/8/2005 A 4 bedroom and 5 bath home, with 3900 square feet. $939,900 The listing brokerage is Marsh Landing Realty, Inc. and MLS#232548
Price: $910,000

Marsh Landing- Sold Date: 7/12/2005 A 3 bedroom and 3 bath home, with 2548 square feet. $564,000 The listing brokerage is Coldwell Banker Walter Williams Realty and MLS#229717
Price: $557,000

Here are the recent condo listings in the Overlook, Stonebridge, Reserve at Point Meadows, Grand Reserve, Point Meadows, Il Villagio, Marsh Landing, Belleza, and The Palms. The square footage is as reported by the MLS. Contact me for more information on these listings.

Il Villagio- Listing Date: 7/1/2005 A 2 bedroom and 3 bath home, with 1296 square feet. $212,500 The listing brokerage is Assist2sell Buyers And Sellers and MLS#249932
Price: $212,500

Il Villagio- Listing Date: 7/1/2005 A 3 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1734 square feet. $310,000 The listing brokerage is Red Door Realty Group, Inc and MLS#250111
Price: $310,000

The Palms- Listing Date: 7/3/2005 A 3 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1413 square feet. $229,900 The listing brokerage is Re/Max Coastal Real Estate and MLS#250138
Price: $229,900

The Overlook- Listing Date: 7/6/2005 A 3 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1206 square feet. $148,500 The listing brokerage is Re/Max Specialists and MLS#250554
Price: $148,500

The Palms- Listing Date: 7/6/2005 A 1 bedroom and 1 bath home, with 842 square feet. $132,900 The listing brokerage is Lifestyles Realtors Sales Off-Marsh Landing and MLS#250471
Price: $132,900

The Palms- Listing Date: 7/6/2005 A 2 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1156 square feet. $172,900 The listing brokerage is Lifestyles Realtors Sales Off-Marsh Landing and MLS#250479
Price: $172,900

The Palms- Listing Date: 7/6/2005 A 2 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1156 square feet. $179,900 The listing brokerage is Lifestyles Realtors Sales Off-Marsh Landing and MLS#250481
Price: $179,900

Grand Reserve- Listing Date: 7/7/2005 A 2 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1212 square feet. $177,900 The listing brokerage is Watson Realty Corp and MLS#250911
Price: $177,900

Point Meadows Place- Listing Date: 7/9/2005 A 2 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1112 square feet. $169,900 The listing brokerage is Keller Williams and MLS#251059
Price: $169,900

Il Villagio- Listing Date: 7/9/2005 A 3 bedroom and 2 bath home, with 1284 square feet. $219,900 The listing brokerage is Lifestyles Realtors, Inc-Condo Connection and MLS#251073
Price: $219,900

After all the applications and offers had been received, it was then down to the interviews before a winner was declared – the Atkins Group with their $5 million bid was chosen above all others as the future owner of the Haydon Burns Library.

Atkins’ two other rivals, Main Branch LLC and Peterbrooke Chocolatier were said to be extremely disappointed things didn’t swing their way.

Now the Haydon Burns Library will be turned into condos, retail center, movie theatre and restaurant instead of the chocolate-related buildings Peterbrooke had proposed.
http://tinyurl.com/oxhw7
(Registration is required to view stories at jacksonville.com)

Economic Update

Strong retail sales, especially in the automotive industry, helped boost non-manufacturing activity in June at a faster than expected pace, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed. The index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector rose to 62.2 last month, up from 58.5 in May. The index was above the 58.9 analysts were expecting. It was the 27th consecutive month of expansion. A reading of 50 or above means the services sector of the economy is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Only two of the 14 industries tracked in the June study reported decreased activity from the prior month — health services and agriculture. Legal services reported the same rate of activity.

Fed Watch
Federal Reserve policy makers raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate a quarter point to 3.25 percent and restated a plan to carry out further increases at a “measured” pace. “The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after a two-day meeting in Washington last week. “With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.” Retaining the “measured” language suggests the FOMC is concerned that low long-term interest rates outside its direct control are still stimulating the economy, requiring central bankers to keep raising their overnight bank lending rate to keeping the expansion from stoking faster inflation. Last week’s rate increase was the ninth in as many meetings. All 22 of Wall Street’s biggest bond trading firms, the so-called primary dealers in government debt that trade directly with the Fed, predicted an increase to 3.25 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Eighteen predict the Fed will raise its target rate to at least 3.75 percent by year-end.

Real Estate Watch
The Pending Home Sales Index, the leading indicator for the housing market, slipped from near-record levels but remains historically high, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index, based on data collected for May, stands at 124.9, which is 2.0 percent below April but 3.7 percent above May 2004. April’s downwardly revised reading of 127.5 was second only to a record of 128.1 in October 2004. The index is based on pending sales of existing homes, including single-family and condos; a sale is pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. Pending home sales typically close within one or two months of signing. David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the index shows robust home sales can be expected for June and July. “Pending home sales are at the third highest on record, so we’re looking at a banner year for the housing market,” he said. “To put the index in perspective, we’re running about 25 percentage points higher than what is considered to be historically strong.”

Sources: Associated Press, Bloomberg, National Association of Realtors
Compiled by Donald Ster, Homebanc,dster@homebanc.com